Giopinions

Silly Season: on the "Alessi-MotoConcepts-DV gate"

2011-11-04T18:42:00.000-07:00

I know, I know...it's old news, still, I think this interview with David Vuillemin is very interesting. 

From the outside looking in, the silly season move that turned MCY into a merged effort between MC and Alessi Racing looked like a potentially excellent move for all the parties involved. MCY's 2011 season was plagued by its riders' injuries, however, DV picked up right from where his predecessor left (a solid 2010 outdoor season), provided more exposure to the team and turned Kyle Chisholm into a solid top 5 contender. On the other hand, in light of their results in the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the careers of Mike and Jeff Alessi seem to have “hit the wall”. Mike used to be a championship contender in the Nationals, Jeff showed serious SX skills. Now, he "floates"* between the 7th and the 4th positions outdoor and Jeff's injury seemed to have pretty much forced him into retirement. In an interview with DMXS (don't remember which one, sorry), Roger DeCoster said that Mike should work on improving his SX skills not only because it would make him more competitive indoor, but also because the improvements in riding techniques would help him being more competitive outdoor, too. Considering DV's success as a riding coach for Gautier Paulin (who, under DV's watch, trained for SX and raced some SX rounds in 2010 doing fairly well and without injuring himself) and Chisholm, I think DV's help would have been very beneficial to Mike in improving his SX skills and in providing some structure to Jeff’s training regime. However, based on the interview with DV above, DV’s comments on the PulpMX Show and his posts on VitalMX, it seems the relationship between DV and the Alessis is far from idyllic. What in the world happened between those 2 at Suzuki in 2008???).

The race results may prove me wrong, but I think that by excluding DV from the Alessi-MotoConcepts racing program, all the parties involved are missing out on a great opportunity to develop a success story: Mike Alessi’s return to being a podium and championship contender. If they were able to put Mike and Jeff career back on track, all the parties involved would greatly benefit from it:

Mike may gain for himself another shot with a factory team;
Jeff could finally exploit his potential racing dirt-bike;
MotoConcepts would gain in terms of popularity among the industry and secure more sales (everybody has a soft spot for companies that sponsor a comeback);
DV may establish himself as a high rate (and therefore well paid) riding coach as opposed to work as a team manager (so he wouldn’t have to travel as much as team managers do, but would still earn more than a team manager by getting a cut of the bonuses earned by his riders).

Will things change in time for all the parties involved to get the most out of the situation? I surely hope so.

* By "floates" I mean "not in contention for podium positions", I don't mean to disrespect a professional rider's efforts.

Silly Season: Reed to Suzuki? Wey to JFR?

2011-11-02T19:41:00.000-07:00

Chad Reed tweeted a few minutes ago "I should have an announcement on Twotwo Motorsports by weeks end". I say that in 2012 we will see Reed riding Suzukis. I don't have any connections to Reed's camp, but, based on Reed's behavior since the advent of social media, I do think that Reed is the most professional testimonial a sponsor can hire in our sport. Think about it: he always endorses very convincingly his sponsors and, at the same time, he is very gracious with his previous sponsors and make the transition from "old sponsors" to "new sponsors" very smoothly.

What does this have to do with Reed joining Suzuki, you ask? Well, if you check Chad's twitter account, you will notice that lately:
1) he hasn't complimented the Honda CRF in a while;
2) he has had kind words for Suzuki multiple times in the past 5 days.

On October 29 he tweeted "Pumped for Mossy but really pumped for McCoy that's awesome for him and Suzuki I know those guys work hard and do it right! Congrats guys". Then
On November 1st he tweeted "Heading to the Suzuki race shop. Gotta drop off a bike", then,
Still on November 1st, he tweeted a picture of the Suzuki RM250 which he rode when he won the 1999 Australian Supercross championship.
Finally, early today he responded to a question on Twitter about the look of his team rig next year with "looking like a new look...".

Assuming my observations are on point, we are left to wonder what kind of set-up will Chad Reed and Suzuki-Yoshimura will have next year. Will Suzuki-Yoshimura merge with 22-Motorsports? I just don't see Suzuki Yoshimura running a 1-man effort "only" with Brett Metcalfe and, at the same time, I can't think of any other podium contenders left available for that team to sign. I don't even see Reed adding another Australian to his team, either, though. It just doesn't make business sense to have 2 Aussies on a team that races US-based series...unless Reed has secured an Australian sponsor interested in getting exposure in the US and that sponsor also wants to enjoy the benefits of the broadcasting in Australia of both the Supercross and Nationals championships.

Should Suzuki indeed secure Reedy's services, come A1 we will finally see the yellow brand well represented behind the gate in terms of bike of choice among top riders. In the early 2000, the starting gate looked like a sea of red fenders. In the past 3 years we have seen an increase of blue and green fenders. In 2012 Suzuki may end up having (in alphabetic order) Mike and Jeff Alessi, Michael Byrne, perhaps Kyle Chisholm, Fabien Izoird, Brett Metcalfe, Chad Reed, Jason Thomas. Not too shabby!

Now, on to Nick Wey. Based on Matthes's report from Bercy, it seems like Wey is going to set-up his own privateer effort as he did in 2010. Assuming Jeff Ward Racing will use Kawasaki bikes, I think NYK27 would be a great pick for that team and I just don't understand how (according to this article by Matthes) Ward would be considering Tommy Hahn or Kyle Regal and not Nick Wey given that:

NW27 likes the bike.
NW27 has already raced the bike with success both at the Monster Cup and in Bercy.
NW27 is an excellent testimonial for industry and outside industry sponsors alike.
NW27 is on good terms with Kawasaki factory guys.
NW27 shares the same clothing sponsor (MSR) with Grant.
NW27 embodies a different yet complementary type of athlete compared to Josh Grant (so the team sponsors would have both the young Mulisha-Type rider and the down to earth clean-cut type).
NW27 is a solid top 10-top 5 contender and one of the most reliable riders in terms of putting the bike in the main event.

We shall see, it seems this Friday we will get to read a few PRs.

Amateur Hour

2011-08-18T13:46:00.000-07:00

This post is about the racing incident between Justin Barcia and Ryan Dungey that occurred in the 2nd moto of the 9th round of the Nationals held this past week end at Unadilla. You can watch the replay of the incident here.

In the past 4 days we have heard what the riders involved had to say, we heard what Steve Matthes, David Pingree, Jason Thomas, Kenny Watson and Jason Weigandt had to say on the incicent. Since one of the guest of this week's show of DMXS Radio, was Justin Barcia, I am positive they, too, have touched upon the subject, but I haven't listened to their latest show yet. However, since you are taking the time to read my blog, this is my time to tell you what I think of the incident between RD5 and JB17.

I side with Ryan Dungey for two reasons.
The first reason is precisely what Dungey brought up in the press conference after the race: professionalism, or, lack thereof, on Barcia's part. Barcia had already been "creative" in riding on and off the track to stay in front of Dungey, Barcia knew that Dungey was right there with him, Barcia knew that Dungey is fighting for the championship, Barcia was out of contention, as far as the title chase is concerned, in both classes. Therefore, when in the last lap Barcia realized that Dungey was making a pass, he should have backed down and safeguarded his 3rd position for the remainder of the last lap. What did Barcia could possibly earn from keeping the 2nd place from Dungey? Reducing Reed's loss to Dungey of 2 points? A bonus $30k richer for ending 2nd overall as opposed to 3rd overall? Showing to Dungey that he doesn't have any inferiority complex against the big guns of the 450 class? I fully understand that an additional $30k in your pocket and the possibility of finishing 2nd overall in your debut in the 450 class are 2 things worth fighting for, but, the key point here is that Dungey is fighting for the championship and, as Barcia should know by now, there is a lot of preparation and money on the line. Jeopardizing another rider's chance to win a championship, when you put yourself out of contention in the championship you were supposed to win is plain unprofessional (thus amateurish, as Dungey stated in the press conference), as far as I am concerned.

The 2nd reason why I think Barcia pulled a dirty move on Dungey is that in the same moto we witnesses a quintessential racing incident: I am talking about the collision between Brett Metcalfe and Jake Weimer. Weimer and Metcalfe collided because of a mistake Weimer made while still ahead of Metcalfe (JW's bike got out of the rut and as soon as he got traction again, he moved back into the line and that's when he tangled with Metcalfe who had taken a line more on the inside). In the incident between Barcia and Dungey, instead, I think 2 elements show that Barcia intended to push Dungey wide. First, as Weigandt pointed out in the Unadilla Podcast Wrap-Up, Barcia said he had to move wide in order to avoid a lapper and the video clearly shows that he was far from hitting the lapper. Second, in the podium interview, when asked about Dungey heated reaction to the collision, Barcia made more than one reference to the fact "he's just having fun". Third, and most importantly, the fact that in this week's edition of the PulpMX Show Ryan Villopoto himself, a rider who races more aggressively than Dungey does and Dungey's main rival in the championship hunt, didn't "clear" Barcia's move as a mere racing incident, supports my opinion that JB17's action was objectively too aggressive considering the circumstances.

Simply the GOAT

2011-08-15T21:42:00.000-07:00

An interesting topic that I have wanted to write about for quite a while is what rider is the GOAT. Is it a topic worth writing about? Steve Matthes says that a reason why Ricky Carmichael is upset with him is that Matthes once wrote that in his opinion RC4 is not the GOAT because he has not won as many supercross main events as Jeremy McGrath. Assuming that Matthes’ opinion is on point, if Carmichael is not the GOAT, who, if anybody, is best motocross rider to ever compete in our sport?
How about Stefan Everts, the King of Motocross? I say “no”. Everts has accomplished a lot, but I think the history of our sport shows that whenever Everts raced against other world champions at the peak of their form such as Greg Albertyn or Sebastian Tortelli, he lost the championship battle. Furthermore, Everts did not do well in supercross at all.
How about Jeremy McGrath, the king of supercross? He holds the record for number of main event wins and it is fair to state that he has made a significant contribution to the growth of supercross into the show that it is today. However, he was indeed a supercross specialist, and, on my opinion, the way he ended his career (retiring after having signed a multi-year agreement with KTM) was really unprofessional (given the standard of professionalism he had set for himself in his career).
Now, let’s go back to Ricky Carmichael. Is Matthes right in saying that, because McGrath still holds the record in terms of supercross main events won, then RC4 cannot be the GOAT? I say “no”. I think there are so many factors that play a role in shaping up a rider’s career that comparing two riders’ career solely in terms of career win does not make sense. For example, it would be reasonable to counter-argue that, true, RC4 didn’t win as many supercross races as MC, however, he won on both 2 strokes and 4 strokes and he won on 3 different brands. Not to mention that RC succeeded in doing what very few athletes have done: retiring when still on top of their game. So, RC4 deserve to be the GOAT, right? No, I don’t think so.

Before I tell you who I think the GOAT is, let me say that my conclusion is the result of a personal opinion about the greatness of the rider’s achievement (also, even though I am big history fan in general, I am totally ignorant about anything that occurred in our sport prior to the August of 1985, which is when I first started following our sport), therefore I didn’t take into account factors such as talent, PR skills, cool gear or any other criteria. With this in mind, let me announce the winner of the prestigious GiOpinions GOAT award. And the winner is... Jean Michael Bayle.

So, why JMB? Because he is French and I am European, too? No. I thought his public behavior toward the US (e.g. keeping the helmet on while the US National Anthem was played before the racing began) was as pointlessly narrow-minded as that of the American riders (e.g. Bradshaw, Stanton) he (said he) found obnoxiously Yankees. JMB came here to make as much as money as possible, the money came mostly as a result of bike sales in the US, so...paraphrasing Marc Pellegrino in his appearance on the PulpMX Show “if you pay my bills, I can’t tell you “fuck you”” as JMB did (again, in public). It doesn’t mean that JMB was supposed to sing the US National anthem along with Bradshaw, but acting the way he did was just disrespectful, which in the case of a professional athlete means “unprofessional”. So, the reason why I think JMB is the GOAT is one: he is the only rider, since 1985 that is, who was able to win both the World Championship and the American championships. In my eyes, no matter how many races or championship a rider wins on his own side of the pond, until he wins series so different from each other for type of terrain (Supercross, the GPs and the Nationals back in the day) and racing conditions (indoor and outdoor) as JMB did, he is second to JMB in terms of GOATness. And keep in mind that back when JMB won the World titles the series were held on different tracks every year and the 125 World Championship was held on different tracks than those on which the 250 championship was held. And the Nationals were held on tracks were the terrain was different from race to race AND the Nationals started during Supercross! I mean, speaking about a versatile rider. I value the dominance of Carmichael, Everts and McGrath, or even Stewart’s speed and Dungey perfect 2 seasons...but neither of them has been able to prove himself successful as JMB did in the most important motocross series in the World. Somebody, especially in the US, may say “JMB, like all the foreigners, came to the US because they would make more money. Had MC and RC gone to race the World Championships, they would have lost a lot of money”. I understand that MC or RC would have lost money, however, I think most American fans don’t appreciate how risky it is for the foreign riders who come to the US to leave their own Country or a series in which they are established players and come to the US and to race their way to success. Lawyered! ;-)

To sum it up: in my eyes, JMB is still the GOAT, not to mention that the Taichi gear he wore in his last season as a motocross rider was, in Kenny Watson’s words, “sicker than sick”, second only, perhaps, to Bradshaw’s AXO gear the season he raced for MHR.

Short('s) Silly Season

2011-08-03T18:23:00.000-07:00

And...I am back! I apologize for the very long silence. It really bothered me not to keep the blog up-to-date as much as I wanted, but, as they say, I had “bigger fish to fry”. However, I am optimistic that from now on I will be able to provide new content at least on a weekly basis. Thank you to those of you who showed interest in the blog and the reasons why I didn't post for such a long while: I appreciated the messages!

Now, the first topic I want to cover is one that I think is being overlooked: Andrew Short's plans for the 2012 season. In this DMXS Radio show, Roger DeCoster said that he is likely to re-sign Shorty for the 2012 season, not only because of his skills, but also to help Roczen adapting to the life of a professional motocross rider in the US and avoid the distractions that have affected many careers. Then, in this episode of the PulpMx Show, Short himself said that he is shopping around for a ride for 2012. In particular, Shorty said that he wants to get on good equipment because he is at the point in his career when he just can't get gamble with that aspect of racing. Even without going all conspiracy theorist, we can conclude that the #29 meant to say that the KTM 350 does not allow him to express his full potential. If this is true, KTM will have to offer Short a very competitive salary in order to keep him on the team, and if the Austrian company is determined to sign Dungey, I wonder whether Short’s salary (which I assume is somewhere around $350,000) will fit into their budget for next season. "Where is the problem, every team must be in the same boat", you may say. I think KTM’s situation is peculiar because, on one hand they want to sign the big name, but on the other hand they have to safeguard their investment in Roczen and make sure the German kid will stay focused more on chasing championships than on chasing the girls or fame.

Now, if KTM won’t find the money to re-sign Short (whom, the media report, Roczen likes and respects), who will play the role of Roczen’s mentor? The German kid is a very personable and charismatic teen-ager and the risk that he will get distracted by what Southern California has to offer is big. By the way, when I write "distracted" I don't necessarily mean "distracted to the extent Josh Hansen or Jason Lawrence got distracted", "distracted a la Josh Hill" would harm Roczen's career, too. I think Dungey will not be interested in being the mentor of a kid he could be competing against in 3 years. And I don’t think Roczen, a smart and well-traveled European kid, will be willing to live and train at the Alessi’s compound in Victorville (assuming that if KTM cannot afford to re-sign Short, they will re-sign Alessi, whose salary, I estimate, is somewhere around $150,000), which is in the middle of the California desert. A very unlikely yet realistic scenario is that Dungey does agree to mentor Roczen, KTM agrees to have Roczen live with Dungey in Florida (after all, Musquin lives in California, so he would be available for testing when Roczen is on the East Coast) where the Roczen family will open a training facility for European kids who want to chase the American dream.

As for Short’s possibilities other than re-signing with KTM, I think Larry Brook’s new team (assuming it will actually become reality) is the most likely destination for the number 29. Short likes the bike and knows it very well, Brooks would sign the best free agent after Dungey and, if it is true as Matthes said in an episode of the PulpMX show, that the sponsor San Manuel will follow Brooks, they will be happy to gain a positive and solid testimonial such as Short. Who would be the other rider? I say Josh Grant, who is fast enough to win a race, would sign for little money due to his injury-plagued 2011 season, and would benefit from Brooks’ expertise to become more consistent.

Time will tell...

My 2 Cents

2010-05-20T14:17:00.000-07:00

And it's back! The pre-season podcast by Steve Matthes is one of my favorite media products of each season because it allows me to verify how on or off target my predictions for the season are compared to those of the insiders.

On a general note, I think this year's Nationals will be one of the most exciting series ever. I know, promoters and journalists say it every year about any series, but I really think the 2010 outdoor season will be remembered as one of the most intense in recent memory. Why?
2 reasons, mostly. The first is that I count 22 riders who can compete for top 10 positions, which per se is bound to make for some close racing. The second reason is that only 3 riders (Alessi, Brayton and Dungey) out of those 22 have a contract for next year, which means that people will be riding for their next job knowing that 3 of the scarce "quality" rides have already been set aside for Canard, Pourcel and Weimer. All this information is summarized in a chart that you find at the bottom of this post.

In terms of predictions, I agree with the trio Matthes-JT-Weege that Dungey and Reed are the 2 riders who are most likely to win the championship.
A factor that may contribute to make things interesting at the very top of the ranking is Reed's plan for his future. Steve Matthes said in today' podcast (but for how long had he been thinking that?) that he wouldn't be surprised if 2010 were Reed's last season as a motocross rider. I think Matthes is onto something...actually I have been thinking the same since Anaheim 1 (really). Here's my take on this:
1) Reed is, first and foremost, a smart and pragmatic guy who is very sensible to incentives and calculated risks;
2) Reed doesn't have a contract for next year;
3) this is the last year that Reed is contracted to race his series in Australia.
Now, fast forward to September 11, 2010. If Chad Reed wins this year's Nationals, what incentives does he have to race in 2011? He could leave the sport in the US on his own terms, go to Australia, win that series, too, and call it a (great) career. Based on Reed's most recent interviews, it is doubtful that Chad would be willing to put his family and himself through the rigors of a 12-month long racing season. And if Reed doesn't win the Nationals this year, what factory team would be willing to sign up a rider who is clearly on his way out? A realistic scenario would be for Chad to stay at Kawasaki for one more Supercross season, end his American career in Vegas and retire at the end of the 2011 SuperX series in Australia.

Below you find the chart that summarizes my predictions for each of the top 10 contenders.

Riders By OEM	Riding For a Contract?		Ranking In The OA At The End of the Series
	Yes	No	Best	Positive	Disappointing
HONDA
Metcalfe	X		6	7 - 10	Below 10
Millsaps	X		3	4 - 8	Below 8
Regal	X		8	9 - 10	Below 10
Short	X		2	3 - 5	Below 5
Townley	X		3	4 - 8	Below 8

KAWASAKI
Reed	X		1	1	Below 1
Wey	X		5	6 - 10	Below 10

KTM
Alessi		X	2	3 - 5	Below 5

SUZUKI
Dungey		X	1	2	Below 2
Hahn	X		3	4 - 6	Below 6
Moss, J.	X		6	7 - 10	Below 10
Moss, M.	X		6	7 - 10	Below 10

YAMAHA
Brayton		X	5	6 - 10	Below 10
Byrne	X		4	5 - 10	Below 10
Cunningham	X		8	9 - 12	Below 12
Goerke	X		6	7 - 10	Below 10
Grant	X		3	4 - 6	Below 6
Hamblin	X		8	9 - 12	Below 12
Langston	X		3	4 - 8	Below 8
Reardon	X		5	6 - 10	Below 10
Sipes	X		8	9 - 12	Below 12
Tedesco	X		5	6 -10	Below 10

Also. I planned on updating this blog more frequently once graduated from law school, however, the Bar exam is even more demanding than school, hence I will start providing you with more giopinions in August. In the meantime, let's enjoy the 2010 Nationals and the World Championship: see you at Glen Helen!

Godspeed, Sharky

2010-05-01T23:23:00.000-07:00

Andrew McFarlane was one of my favorite riders. I liked him because he was a great rider as well as a friendly and down to earth guy, and I have a vivid memory of him in both capacities.

The first memory refers to Andrew's dominating ride at the 2004 Italian GP. I was there and I saw Sharky winning both motos against competitors such as Cairoli, Chiodi, Maschio, Rattray and Townley. He was head and shoulder faster than anybody else.
The second memory refers to the opener of the 2008 AMA Nationals at Glen Helen. I had chatted with Andrew at the annual Motobowl held the Thursday before the race and I had just arrived in the pit area when I heard "Buongiorno!" and felt a pat on my shoulder. It was Andrew, he was walking back to the truck after the riders meeting, he recognized me and stopped to say "hello" and exercise the Italian he remembered from his days at Rinaldi Yamaha and Ricci Yamaha.

What made Sharky special in my eyes, as well as in those of the nearly 14 thousand people who, to date, have joined the Facebook group set up in his memory, is that he was friendly and available to the fans regardless of whether he had won a race or done OK. So, when I first read of Andrew's death on Chad Reed's twitter page, I was saddened to the point that, I confess, I had tears in my eyes.

Godspeed, Andrew. Natalie and Tyla, I have you in my prayers.

"A3, Results" & "Heading East"

2010-02-19T22:53:00.000-08:00

My predictions for A3 proved to be louzy...but that's fine:

	Predictions	Results
1)	Dungey	Villopoto
2)	Millsaps	Hill
3)	Hill	Windham
4)	Villopoto	Dungey
5)	Brayton	Millsaps
6)	Tedesco	Brayton
7)	Hahn	Chisholm
8)	Windham	Byrne
9)	Langston	Reardon
10)	Byrne	Wey

Anyway, the series is heading East and I think it is time to look at the outcome of the first 6 rounds, crunch some numbers and draw some conclusions. Let's begin by comparing the line-ups at the beginning of the 2009 and 2010 season and the results of the races held in Arizona and California:

2009 LINE UP

WEST COAST SXs

2010 LINE UP

WEST COAST SXs

Race Winners

Winners

Race Winners

Winners

Hill

Grant

Grant

Dungey

Millsaps

Stewart

Hill

Millsaps

Reed

Millsaps

Stewart

Stewart

Reed

Villopoto

Windham

Stewart

Villopoto

Windham

Top 3 Cntndrs

Podium Fnsrs

Top 3 Cntndrs

Podium Fnsrs

Ferry

Reed

Dungey

Hill

Marsack

Short

Lawrence

Tedesco

Millsaps

Villopoto

Short

Whindham

Tedesco

Windham

Wey

Top 5 Cntndrs

Top 5 Fnsrs

Top 5 Cntndrs

Top 5 Fnsrs

Alessi, M.

Ferry

Hahn, T

Brayton

Balbi, A.

Hepler

Langston

Short

Hahn, T.

Millsaps

Tedesco

Langston

Tedesco

Short

Tedesco

Top 10 Cntndrs

Top 10

Top 10 Cntndrs

Top 10

Adams

Alessi

Boni

Byrne

Carpenter

Byrne

Brayton

Chisholm

G. Rivas

Carpenter

Byrne

Hahn

Grant

Coisy

Casillas

Langston

Hansen

Hill

Thomas

Reardon

Preston

Voss

Voss

Stroupe

Siebler

Wey

Wey

Wey

Sorby

Summey

Thomas

Voss

Wey

Main Event Cntndrs

Main Event

Main Event Cntnrs

Main Event

Balbi

Adams

Blair

Aranda

Marsack

Blair

Hamblin

Boni

Siebler

Boni

Partridge

Blose

Boniface

Siebler

Browne

Bowers

Casillas

Chisholm

Coulon

Hahn

Grant

Hamblin

Izoird

Hansen

Keeney

Kiniry

Lawrence

McCoy

Peick

Preston

Reed

Siebler

Rivas Gomez

Summey

Thomas

TOTAL

TOTAL

31

30

1) The first thing you notice by looking at the chart above, is that, just as I predicted before the season started, (a) the fiercest battles have taken place to secure the very top positions of the main event, (b) the positions between 7 and 10 of the heat races regular main-event are only 14) and top 2 spots in the LCQ.

a) The 7 riders who have scored top 3 results in the first 6 rounds are all riders who have won at least 1 main event.
b) Out of the 30 riders who have lined-up for at least one main event, only 9 have qualified for each main event. The number reaches 14 if you count also Blose, Chisholm, Hahn, Short and Thomas, all riders who have qualified for 5 out of the 6 main events so far. Considering that the fastest riders are evenly divided in the 2 heat races, it means that 7 out of the 9 qualifying spots in every heat race go to one of those 14 riders. The exception seems to be JT$, as he seems to have subscribed to the LCQ experience J/K.
c) The LCQ is the door through which most of the privateers qualify for the main event. It may sound an obvious statement, but last year many LCQs featured a couple of high profile at the start because the class was just as stacked as this yar and none of the top guns injured himself in the first 6 rounds of the series.

2) The second observation is that the class is so stacked that it is rare to see a rider coming through the pack, let alone cause an upset. Look at the difference between the Line-Up for the season and the results so far: the only riders who have improved their results vis-a-vis their previous years' best performance in the 450 class are Dungey (who improved from being a podium contender to being a main event winner) and Brayton (who scored his first top 5 result).

3) Qualifying for the main event is becoming more and more difficult for the true privateers. All the 14 riders who are regular presences in the main event race for an organized team, and if you add Grant, Reed and Stewart to those 14, the true privateers would have to battle for only 3 spots. Still, the WWR rig is as crowded as I have seen it. Those guys deserves all the respect in the World, and Feld's attention, for putting in the hard work necessary to qualify for the night program.

4) Difference with 2009's results pattern: unchanged. The only difference refers to the number of main event winners, and this, I think, has a lot to do with Stewart's absence due to injury. When you look at the number of podium, top 5 and top 10 contenders, though, you can see that, both in 2009 and this year, approximately the same numbers of riders have shared the top 10 positions.

5) What's next? I think Lawrence will become a regular top 10 contender by the 2nd half of the series. However, barring injuries, I doubt he will re-gain the speed and fitness necessary to break in the top 5. I have the impression that J-Law and Randy Lawrence plan on being a threat for the Nationals.

My impression as a fan is that the 2009 Supercross series was more exciting that this year's. True, the battle between Dungey and Stewart battle at A1 was good, and the Hill - Villopoto battle at SF was good, too...and what about the Reed - Stewart incident and Stewart's landing on Patridge in PHX? It's 4 exciting episodes in 6 rounds, what more can an armchair-fan like me ask for???!!! I guess I enjoyed last year's "Reed v. Stewart"-hype better. "How so?", you may ask. Well, for one thing, there was Grant's breathtaking win at A1. Then, CR and JS were head and shoulder above anybody else: you could see that at every race and it was a show withing the show. Most importantly, though, Reed's bad starts forced him to cut through the pack, battle with other podium contenders such as Grant, Short, Villopoto and Windham and pass them. So, as far as I am concerned, the main events were 3 shows in one.

Now that the threat of a dominance by 1 rider (Stewart) seems long gone (January 2011?) and that the Reed v. Stewart rivalry is on its Sunset Blvd because of Reed's retirement at the end of 2011, it seems we are set for a 4 riders' dominance (Dungey, Hill, Millsaps and Villopoto): will the young guns meet the fans' expectations? Will Alessi and Townley make things even more interesting? Time will tell.

NOTE: this blog takes a break until the Nationals begin. Law school is very time consuming and I just don't have the time to study as hard as I want to and publish interesting posts, too (not that I thought my predictions and their follow up were good posts!): believe it or not, coming up with interesting content and charts is ver time consuming. Enjoy the rest of the supercross season, I will, and do come back to giopinions the week before the Nationals begin!

A3, Predictions

2010-02-13T14:39:00.000-08:00

Heading to Angels' Stadium in 5 minutes...here's my top 10 for tonight's race:

1) Dungey
2) Millsaps
3) Hill
4) Villopoto
5) Brayton
6) Tedesco
7) Hahn
8) Windham
9) Langston
10) Byrne

San Diego, Results

2010-02-12T18:43:00.000-08:00

Last week I didn't guess the main event performance any of top 10 riders...but that's fine, I am actually a happy fan when things go very differently from how I predicted they would go. By the way, I just read this week's Racerhead and I was surprised to read that this year, for the first time since 1993, "a rider who finished the supercross tour fifth or worse will win the following year’s championship". WOW. It will be interesting to see how this will affect the self-confidence of the big guns, old AND young...and if, and how, this will affect this year's silly season and the trend of SX-only contracts. Is it worthwhile to invest resources in a rider who may race just a handful of races, if any (see James Stewart in 2008 and 2010)? Time will tell.

Anyway, here are my predictions for San Diego and the actual results:

	Predictions	Results
1)	Dungey	Millsaps
2)	Brayton	Hill
3)	Short	Tedesco
4)	Tedesco	Villopoto
5)	Windham	Brayton
6)	Hill	Dungey
7)	Langston	Hahn
8)	Millsaps	Langston
9)	Hahn	Wey
10)	Villopoto	Chisholm

And this is A3's week end...it is mid February, yet the first 6 round of supercross have already provided enough material to draw some conclusions. I will post them on Sunday.

San Diego, Predictions

2010-02-06T17:11:00.000-08:00

I am typing these lines from San Clemente, the last city you encounter in the Orange County before you enter North County: it is 5:15 pm on Saturday and it is raining cats and dogs. Most people wouldn't be thrilled to spend 4 hours in the rain watching riders rolling up and down the obstacles of a supercross track, but I think mud races are actualy very interesting to watch for a couple of reasons:

1) they add credibility to the final outcome of the championship.

One of the main assets of the World Championship of motocross is that its rounds are held on circuits very different from each other (both in terms of layout and terrain) and under weather conditions very different from each other. For the very same reason, I think the Supercross championship gains in credibility when the riders and the bikes are tested in conditions that vary from round to round.

2) unpredictability of the outcome.

The last time a true privateer won the main event of a supercross race was in 1987, and it was a mud race (Rick Ryan, Daytona). This year Jacop Marsack is not racing because injured, Antonio Balbi races in the Lites class and none of the true privateers seems to be close enough to the factory guys to cause a shocker. Still, I think the mud is a great equalizer and we could have a 4th race winner in 5 rounds, which would make things even more interesting for the title chase.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for how the top ten will look like tonight:

1) Dungey

2) Brayton

3) Short

4) Tedesco

5) Windham

6) Hill

7) Langston

8) Millsaps

9) Hahn

10) Villopoto

By the way, the weather is not nice in Northern Italy either, actually it is way worse than in SoCal because it is rainy and also very cold. However, the season opener will be held tomorrow in Mantova and I think the results of the timed practice are interesting. Marc "Calimero" deReuver is second only to Cairoli and I want to repeat what I wrote multiple times: Marc deReuver has the talent to win the World Championship, he "only" needs to find the focus. Anybody who doubts my assessment can check Marc's results in the World Championship and notice how he has won races both on hard terrains and sand.

San Fran' Results & RV2

2010-02-03T09:12:00.000-08:00

My predictions for last week's race were not as spot as those about A2, however, I am still happy. You know, for a Motocross nerd like me, it is nice to guess right all the top 10 riders and their ranking, but it is also very rewarding to guess right the 6th spot. And believe me, I do spend a few minutes thinking about the predictions. For example, one of the highlights of "Predictions" was guessing that Finnish veteran Matti Seistola would score 8th at the GP of the Flanders in 2008.

	Predictions	Results
1)	Dungey	Villopoto
2)	Villopoto	Hill
3)	Short	Millsaps
4)	Hill	Dungey
5)	Windham	Short
6)	Brayton	Brayton
7)	Millsaps	Tedesco
8)	Byrne	Wey
9)	Tedesco	Hahn
10)	Chisholm	Byrne

So, I am glad I guessed right Brayton's performance, but even more so, I was pleasantly surprised that both Matthes and Weege confirmed that a fair share of Villopoto's troubles stemmed from personal issues. Of course, by no mean I am glad RV2 had personal issues: as I wrote, personal issues suck because "if it is not a money problem, it is a problem". What made me happy is that a fan such as myself, with basically no insider's knowledge of the sport (aside for 2 journalists I am on good email terms with), was able to spot that. Anyway, I am glad Villo has sorted his personal issues out, or has taken steps to iron them out and I definitely welcome the fact that for the first time in...5 years? we will have a new supercross champion. Good stuff!

San Francisco, Predictions

2010-01-30T16:52:00.000-08:00

Here's my top 10 for tonight's race:

1) Dungey

2) Villopoto

3) Short

4) Hill

5) Windham

6) Brayton

7) Millsaps

8) Byrne

9) Tedesco

10) Chisholm

A2 Results & RV2

2010-01-29T15:34:00.000-08:00

Here's how I come up with my predictions: I read the update on RacerX, Transworld, VitalMX and PulpMX's twitter page, I look at the results of the previous race, I mix all those information and write my top 10. Here's how I did last week:

	Predictions	Results
1)	Dungey	Dungey
2)	Hill	Hill
3)	Windham	Stewart
4)	Short	Short
5)	Brayton	Windham
6)	Millsaps	Brayton
7)	Villopoto	Villopoto
8)	Hahn	Millsaps
9)	Langston	Byrne
10)	Chisholm	Tedesco

So, RV2 ended 7th and as you can tell by watching his segment of this video, saying that the guy was not exactly thrilled would be an understatement. Actually, as far as I am concerned, I thought his outburts was very unprofessional: come on, if you are so upset, either don't say anything, or just say that you are very disappointed about your performance. You really don't need to show your sponsors and fans this side of you.

However, that statement is just the latest instance in which Ryan Villopoto showed his new attitude, where by "new" I mean "post 2009 Nationals". As Steve Matthes pointed out in the past 2 Motoworld.com radio show, "the guy is upset": read the interviews on the aforementioned websites between the week before the 2009 US Open and last week's race, and you will notice it. Now, the question is, "what is the reason behind the change in Villo's attitude? Or to put in more Matthesque terms, "what's eating Villo?".

1) Is it a personal issues (e.g. family, girlfriend...)?

I hope it is not. As they say, "when a problem is a money-related problem, it is actually not a problem".

2) Is it because of the changes in his entourage (from Randy Lawrence to Dr. Spencer to...)?

Considering how much Carmichael, Short and Stewart rely on their trainers, I guess it is understandable that a change in the training regime may affect a rider's performance. On the other hand, neither Dungey, nor Pourcel, nor Reed seem to rely on a coach-like figure such as Aldon Baker and they seem to do just fine.

3) Is it because he is not performing as well as he was expecting he would?

Well, let's start with this: RV2 is definitey one of the fastest riders in the world, but I think he rides motocross better than supercross, and his 3 outdoor Lites-clss titles against his 1 supercorss Lites-class title seem to confirm this. Villo will win more supercross main event, but I think Dungey, Hill, Reed and Stewart are all better supercross riders than Villo is, hence RV2 needs to be patient.

4) Is it because of the buz surrounding Reed's arrival at Kawasaki (where Villo has been the golden child for the past 4 seasons) upset him?

Well, that is understandable. With the execption of Townley at Pro Circuit, Villo has always been the team's captain for the past 4 years and he just may be not used to be overshadowed by anybody.

5) Is it because some of the riders he used to dominate in the Lites class (e.g. Dungey and Lawrence), seem to attract more attention from non-industry sponsors?

Barring personal issues, I think this is the main source of frustration for RV2. I mean, in his days in the Lites class Villo dominated both Dungey and Lawrence and his curriculum was just a little less impressive than RC4's. Moreover, while Dungey seemed to be cracking under the pressure of J-Law's mental games, Villo confronted the New Jersey native and crushed him, especially results-wise: remember Hangtown 2007? Fast forward 3 years and Dungey has shown not only that he has nerves of steel in dealing with J-Law, with Jake Weimer and with Pourcel, but he is also leading the supercross championship in his first season in the 450 class! And J-Law may have lost some ground due to his off-track behaviors, but he has his own team and attracts more outside corporate sponsors than Villo. This has to do in part with RV2's personality, but his latest attitude (and his passion for hunting) definitely doesn't help.

A2, Predictions

2010-01-23T17:31:00.000-08:00

Good evening everybody, here's my top 10 for tonight:

1) Dungey

2) Hill

3) Windham

4) Short

5) Brayton

6) Millsaps

7) Villopoto

8) Hahn

9) Langston

10) Chisholm

I am committed not to check the results until after the broadcast on CBS, still, I am not sure I will be willing to actually follow through.

2010 Phoenix SX...WOW!!!

2010-01-19T20:19:00.000-08:00

So, let's begin with the difference between my predictions and the actual results:

	Predictions	Results
1)	Stewart	Dungey
2)	Dungey	Villopoto
3)	Hill	Hill
4)	Short	Tedesco
5)	Reed	Short
6)	Windham	Windham
7)	Millsaps	Stroupe
8)	Langston	Brayton
9)	Brayton	Millsaps
10)	Tedesco	Hahn

And now some "meat":

1) Dungey & Hill. Both riders already proved their value in the 450 class, but...it was 2 years ago (OK, but for Hill's podium in Toronto last year), the trio Reed-Stewart-Villopoto came into the season as almost the monopolists for the podium spots...who would have thought they provide such convicing performances? We are only 2 races into the season and both Dungey and Hill seem to have the confidence and momentum to battle for the podium positions "week in and week out" (to use an expression very used in the industry).

2) Stewart. As I wrote in a thread on Vitalmx.com that must have been clipped, JS7 really seems a genuinely nice, funny and very mature guy for his age...however, I really don't understand how a top-notch professional like him can do reckless moves such as those listed at page 7 of this thread on thread on VitalMX. I mean, no doubt that in order to become a Carmichael or a Stewart you need to raise the bar higher and push the limits wider, but...I don't remember Carmichael getting involved in such spectacular racing incidents, and Reed has been very successful by being consistent and riding smart.

3) And speaking of Reed, the Weege rightfully points out in this article that this year's A2 will be the first supercross race since A1 2003 for which Reed will not line up. However, I am positive that despite the frustration for the injury, Reed is aware that the odds were against him as he is still the only first-tier rider I can think of who has never suffered a significant injury (e.g. knee injury). Here's to Chad Reed to retire holding this priceless record.

4) Despite the fact that we are only 2 races into the season, we are already witnessing enough changes in the teams' rosters (Byrne, Chisholm, Hamblin) to almost fill a silly-season related article. The oddest transfer, I think, is the one involving Byrne and JGR: I understand that Byrne agreed to fill in for JGR before Reed got hurt, that Byrne lives in Georgia (which is closer to JGR's main race-shop than Southern California) and that JGR is JGR...however, considering that Byrne already rides Kawasaki and that riding for Monster Kawasaki would have allowed him to keep his personal sponsors except Rockstar, I wonder if MB26 isn't burning the relationships with his longtime supporters, as Matthes suggested here. What is Byrne going to do after Supercross? Switch back from the trick Yamaha to his privateer Kawasaki and test outdoor set-ups in 2 weeks? Time will tell, I guess.

5) Did you guys read this interview with Tommy Hahn? I remember I was surprised to read that he thinks of A1 just another race, but then I thought that perhaps it is only for us, the fans, that the opening round is such a big deal (because it is the first motocross "treat" of the year, because of the new teams, bikes etc.). However, after reading and listening to several interviews (the last being Josh Hill's phone call to this week's Motoshow), as a fan I felt reassured realizing that A1 IS a big deal for the whole industry, riders included. Perhaps TH10 is only very cold-blooded.

6) Gear. I have listened to this week's show with Matthes and Lindsay and I agree with Steve's opinion on the design of the latest collections of motocross gear. Patterns are OK with me, but I think every gear manufacturer should offer a couple of sets of gear featuring a clean design. Moreover, I think the teams should require that their supplier (in case they have team deals for the riders' gear) or the riders's gear sponsor provides outfits where the logo of the team's sponsors can be seen clearly. The team that has adopted this practice most closely and for the longest time is Mitch Payton's, and I think everybody agrees that the PC riders have the cleanest look in the paddock. I am surprised L&M hasn't done anything about this yet: the "San Manuel" and "Yamaha" stickers on the riders' jerseys are not enough and not up to the team's potential, I think).

As for A2, the weather forecast suggest it won't be a mud race, so those of you who will be there may actually witness JS7's resurrection. On the other hand, if Dirt Wurks won't be able to eliminate the mud factor, Dungey and the other lanky riders such as Byrne and Millsaps may have an advantage over their vertically challenged rivals.

Prediction For Phoenix

2010-01-16T15:00:00.000-08:00

Here's how I think the top 10 will look like tonight:

1) Stewart

2) Dungey

3) Hill

4) Short

5) Reed

6) Windham

7) Millsaps

8) Langston

9) Brayton

10) Tedesco

Have a good week end!

A1, The Actual Results

2010-01-12T21:23:00.001-08:00

So A1 2010 is in the archives. First off, let's compare my predictions with what actually happened last Saturday...

	Predictions	Results
1)	Stewart	Stewart
2)	Reed	Dungey
3)	Short	Windham
4)	Hill	Short
5)	Villopoto	Villopoto
6)	Grant	Hill
7)	Millsaps	Tedesco
8)	Dungey	Brayton
9)	Brayton	Millsaps
10)	Tedesco	Langston
11)	Hahn, T.	Hahn, T

Also, now that we have all read Observations, 450 Words and listened to Podium Speaks about A1, below you find what I noticed:

1) The actual line-up had quite a few differences from the one the industry could expect to see based on the off-season PRs and rumors. There wasn't any trace of Sean Hamblin under the J-Law Racing's tent (and based on what Hamblin himself wrote on vitalmx.com and Matthes said during the second episode of the MotoShow, it is unlikely it will happen), and there was not trace of Ryan Newton (the 4th rider who was supposed to be part of the J-Law Racing's Supercros line-up) either. Also noteworthy was the absence of Tyler Evans, Cole Siebler, Jason Thomas and Heath Voss (Siebler, Thomas and Voss were all in Germany to race in the last event of the German supercross championship).

2) The track looked pretty...banal and made passing very difficult: the Lites main event was uneventful...when was the last time you saw an uneventful Lites main event? Lindsay and Matthes commented during the MotoShow that Feld did well in opening the season with a simple track for it would help reduce the risk of injuries. I agree that safety come very first, but how about a technical and slow track that requires the riders to take it slowly?

3) Talking about injuries: how spectacular and ugly was Dan Reardon's crash? I hope he recovers well and fast.

4) Contrarily to what Lindsay & Matthes said in the Motoshow and contrarily to what Weege wrote in the 450 Words, I had the impression that money in our sport is extremely tight this year. True, Jagermeister, Monster and Spyke TV have very large entertainment areas, but it doesn't mean anything about the teams' 2010 budget. However, it is good to see that for a Tyler Evans and a Ryan Newton who were no show at A1, Kyle Chisholm and Weinston Peick have joined the 2010 line-up.

5) I think A1 won't be the last time we will see Kevin Windham on the podium in 2010. I saw this interview with K-Dub on Transworld Motocross and he seems hungry and determined to do well and secure a ride for 2011.

Finally, to all those people surprised by Grant Langston's performance in the main event, I say "I wasn't". In the last few seconds before the main event's gate drop, the camera showed on the screen GL's eyes and they showed desire. Welcome back, Grant!

Predictions For A1 & Deciding Factor

2010-01-08T11:17:00.000-08:00

OK, let's be Saturday morning' team manager (as opposed to Sunday morning's). Who will score top 10 results tonight? Here's my top 10:

1) Stewart

2) Reed

3) Short

4) Hill

5) Villopoto

6a) Grant

6b or 7) Millsaps

7b or 8) Dungey

8b or 9) Brayton

9b or 10) Tedesco

10b or 11) Hahn

I checked out the Animated track Map of A1, I checked out the lay-out of the other tracks and I have listened to the podcast Steve Matthes had with Dace Prater and...unless Feld Entertainment really retain Travis Pastrana as a track designer for the Toronto round, I think James Stewart is going to win each and every round of Supercross. I am not saying it will be a walk in the park for him, but he may have a perfect season. Let's remember that, just as Larry Brooks himself said during the 1st MotoShow, 2010 is contract year for James and the whole L&M team, too: with the economy still in the tank, L&M will want to do even better than usual in order to maintain the same contributions from the sponsors. The good news for the Stewart camp (bad news for the fans, though) is that this year's track are fairly "plain vanilla" Supercross track. True, there are several tracks featuring intersections and, again, I wouldn't ride on those tracks even on a mountain bike, but for the pros those lay-out are pretty straightforward to get acquainted too. On the other hand, the key factor to have intense competition for the top spots is to have atypical track lay-outs such as those Feld prepared last year for A2 and St. Louis (the Pastrana-designed track). Think about it: what do the track at the 2008 MXdN, A2 2009, St. Louis 2009 and Daytona 2009 have in common? That they are the only tracks with a lay-out and terrain different from those in which James Stewart practices, and they are those in which the race results were the most unpredictable. True, JS didn't win A1 either, but this has more to do with, I think, what Matthes & C said in the 2009 Supercross Preview podcast: that James is indeed the fastest but not the rider who can best perform under pressure.

When you have the fastest rider in the World (James Stewart) and the rider who is the quickest to thin on his feet (Chad Reed, but I think Jason Lawrence comes close second), for what reason would you want to make it easy only for the fastest rider, thus foregoing the potential for intense competition and better entertainment?